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Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Mutual Fund Strategies: How to Minimize the Risk
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Mutual Fund Strategies: How to Minimize the Risk
Before you can plan a mutual fund strategy, you need to have a clear picture in your mind of your goals as an investor. You also need to determine the amount of time you have to reach those goals. Investing is time-sensitive, so you will always need to factor time into any investing strategy.
Today, with more than 10,000 mutual funds to choose from, you can be sure there is a fund (or several) with your name on it. However, rather than seeking a fund or even a fund category, you should first determine how your portfolio should be set up. It is always much easier to start at the top, with your overall asset allocation plan, and then fill in the pieces, or funds, later. Too many investors go right to the fund selection, chasing the top funds as listed in magazines only to get burned when last year’s winner becomes this year’s disaster.
If you determine your overall investing position based on goals and timeframe, you can lay out a strategy. For example, a young couple, without children, who have a high combined income, can be aggressive in their choices. They may opt to put 80 percent of their investment dollars into riskier, aggressive funds and the remaining 20 percent into more conservative fund investments. They have time on their side and are not averse to taking some financial risk.
Conversely, an older couple, nearing retirement, may opt for the reverse calculations, looking for 80 percent of their mutual fund investments to be in income-generating, safer funds. They want income soon and are not in a position to take risks.
Of course, the above examples are broad generalizations. However, by creating your asset allocation blueprint you will then be able to select fund categories that fit appropriately and allow you to diversify. By diversifying across sectors, caps and fund categories, you lower your overall level of risk. In a sense, a good investor is doing at some level what a fund manager does by choosing diverse investments so that, if one does poorly, the others will more than make up for it.
In the late 1990s the technology funds were the rage. If you were willing to take the risk and bank on tech sector funds (and knew when to get out), you could have made a lot of money. While no one sector is flying at that level today, you can take a more aggressive approach by looking at overseas markets and small cap, mid cap and emerging growth funds. In the more conservative portion of the portfolio, you’ll want funds with the large cap blue chip stocks, large cap value funds, income funds and bond funds.
Generally, having five to eight funds in your fund portfolio should meet your investing needs. The key to your strategy is figuring out your timeframe, risk level andasset allocation first before looking at fund categories and finally plugging in the actual funds.
The best strategy, you should consider, is to build a diversified mutual fund portfolio. A properly constructed portfolio, including a mix of both stock and bonds funds, provides an opportunity to participate in stock market growth and cushions your portfolio when the stock market is in decline. Such a portfolio can be constructed by purchasing individual funds in proportions that match your desiredasset allocation or you can do the entire job with a single fund by purchasing a mutual fund that has "growth and income" or "balanced" in its name.
* Rss Feed
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Mutual Fund Strategies: How to Minimize the Risk
Before you can plan a mutual fund strategy, you need to have a clear picture in your mind of your goals as an investor. You also need to determine the amount of time you have to reach those goals. Investing is time-sensitive, so you will always need to factor time into any investing strategy.
Today, with more than 10,000 mutual funds to choose from, you can be sure there is a fund (or several) with your name on it. However, rather than seeking a fund or even a fund category, you should first determine how your portfolio should be set up. It is always much easier to start at the top, with your overall asset allocation plan, and then fill in the pieces, or funds, later. Too many investors go right to the fund selection, chasing the top funds as listed in magazines only to get burned when last year’s winner becomes this year’s disaster.
If you determine your overall investing position based on goals and timeframe, you can lay out a strategy. For example, a young couple, without children, who have a high combined income, can be aggressive in their choices. They may opt to put 80 percent of their investment dollars into riskier, aggressive funds and the remaining 20 percent into more conservative fund investments. They have time on their side and are not averse to taking some financial risk.
Conversely, an older couple, nearing retirement, may opt for the reverse calculations, looking for 80 percent of their mutual fund investments to be in income-generating, safer funds. They want income soon and are not in a position to take risks.
Of course, the above examples are broad generalizations. However, by creating your asset allocation blueprint you will then be able to select fund categories that fit appropriately and allow you to diversify. By diversifying across sectors, caps and fund categories, you lower your overall level of risk. In a sense, a good investor is doing at some level what a fund manager does by choosing diverse investments so that, if one does poorly, the others will more than make up for it.
In the late 1990s the technology funds were the rage. If you were willing to take the risk and bank on tech sector funds (and knew when to get out), you could have made a lot of money. While no one sector is flying at that level today, you can take a more aggressive approach by looking at overseas markets and small cap, mid cap and emerging growth funds. In the more conservative portion of the portfolio, you’ll want funds with the large cap blue chip stocks, large cap value funds, income funds and bond funds.
Generally, having five to eight funds in your fund portfolio should meet your investing needs. The key to your strategy is figuring out your timeframe, risk level andasset allocation first before looking at fund categories and finally plugging in the actual funds.
The best strategy, you should consider, is to build a diversified mutual fund portfolio. A properly constructed portfolio, including a mix of both stock and bonds funds, provides an opportunity to participate in stock market growth and cushions your portfolio when the stock market is in decline. Such a portfolio can be constructed by purchasing individual funds in proportions that match your desiredasset allocation or you can do the entire job with a single fund by purchasing a mutual fund that has "growth and income" or "balanced" in its name.
While there are certain diversification strategies that investors can undertake to minimize their risk, there is always the risk that the market as a whole is unhealthy and produces negative returns. The different types of risk inherent with investing and how to avoid them are outlined below:
Systematic Risk
This type of risk is impossible to reduce through diversification. Unfortunately, along with investing in capital markets comes the risk of an overall economic downturn. Since this risk is impossible to eliminate, mutual fund investors tend to focus on the next main type of risk: non-systematic risk.
Non-Systematic Risk
This type of risk is the risk associated with investing in any particular security. This can be a stock, bond, exchange traded fund etc. Fortunately, this risk can be reduced through diversification. As such, many mutual fund investors search to choose a wide variety of securities to include in the portfolio in order to diversify away from this non-systematic risk. However, it must also be noted that after a total of 32securities are added to the portfolio, the risk has been diversified as much as possible. Any securities that are added to these 32 will not serve the purpose of reducing risk in the portfolio.
Diverse Security Types
Now that we have covered the forms of risk and the need for diversification, we can cover some of the ways to expand proper diversification potential. The first is to invest in different types of securities. Depending on the business cycle, different securities will be most appropriate to the portfolio, however there should always be a mix of these securities so that the investor is not restricted to one particular market. Different security types that some mutual fund investors consider are: bonds (also called debentures in some cases), equities (stocks), exchange traded funds (these follow the performance of a certain market whether it is a stock market or the market for the price of a metal). More experienced investors may choose to invest in stock options or warrants which essentially give the right but not the obligation to purchase asecurity at a given price.
Diverse Industries
Another strategy to increase the diversification potential of a portfolio is to invest in a diverse number of industries. This will prevent you from being overly exposed to an industry which may experience an overall decrease in profits due to a certain global issue (i.e.: the real estate market). The key here is to invest in stocks that aren't correlated to one another. For example, rather than investing in a cruise company as well as an airline company (both subject to variance in the amount of travel); you should invest in an airline company as well as oil. Since the price oil is negatively correlated to the airline company's profitability (as one rises in value the other should fall), you will be well positioned to reduce the overall risk of your portfolio ofsecurities.
While there are other methods of diversification (i.e.: investing in foreign markets), these are the main ones, and by using this knowledge, you should be able to minimize the risk in your portfolio greatly.
Systematic Risk
This type of risk is impossible to reduce through diversification. Unfortunately, along with investing in capital markets comes the risk of an overall economic downturn. Since this risk is impossible to eliminate, mutual fund investors tend to focus on the next main type of risk: non-systematic risk.
Non-Systematic Risk
This type of risk is the risk associated with investing in any particular security. This can be a stock, bond, exchange traded fund etc. Fortunately, this risk can be reduced through diversification. As such, many mutual fund investors search to choose a wide variety of securities to include in the portfolio in order to diversify away from this non-systematic risk. However, it must also be noted that after a total of 32securities are added to the portfolio, the risk has been diversified as much as possible. Any securities that are added to these 32 will not serve the purpose of reducing risk in the portfolio.
Diverse Security Types
Now that we have covered the forms of risk and the need for diversification, we can cover some of the ways to expand proper diversification potential. The first is to invest in different types of securities. Depending on the business cycle, different securities will be most appropriate to the portfolio, however there should always be a mix of these securities so that the investor is not restricted to one particular market. Different security types that some mutual fund investors consider are: bonds (also called debentures in some cases), equities (stocks), exchange traded funds (these follow the performance of a certain market whether it is a stock market or the market for the price of a metal). More experienced investors may choose to invest in stock options or warrants which essentially give the right but not the obligation to purchase asecurity at a given price.
Diverse Industries
Another strategy to increase the diversification potential of a portfolio is to invest in a diverse number of industries. This will prevent you from being overly exposed to an industry which may experience an overall decrease in profits due to a certain global issue (i.e.: the real estate market). The key here is to invest in stocks that aren't correlated to one another. For example, rather than investing in a cruise company as well as an airline company (both subject to variance in the amount of travel); you should invest in an airline company as well as oil. Since the price oil is negatively correlated to the airline company's profitability (as one rises in value the other should fall), you will be well positioned to reduce the overall risk of your portfolio ofsecurities.
While there are other methods of diversification (i.e.: investing in foreign markets), these are the main ones, and by using this knowledge, you should be able to minimize the risk in your portfolio greatly.
Choosing a Real Asset
The entire category of real assets includes a range of potential investments, including real estate, gold and other commodities such as oil, minerals and agricultural products. Each of these, however, has its own return and volatility characteristics, and may or may not serve as an effective inflation hedge at any given time. Real estate, for example, is often subject to unique supply-and-demand or financing dynamics that are separate from other real assets and not always closely correlated with inflation.
“When choosing a real asset to invest in, it’s important to understand the real asset’s correlation with other investments in the portfolio, such as stocks or bonds, and the real asset’s direct correlation with inflation,” says Jim McDonald, chief investment strategist for Northern Trust. “For example, in 2008, commodities, as an asset class, went down every bit as much as stocks. So what’s important is making sure an investment is directly correlated with inflation, and not necessarily correlated with the performance of other portfolio investments.”
Whether real estate, gold, oil, minerals or Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), real assets can deliver robust diversification benefits due to their often-negative correlation with stocks and bonds.
Get Real AssetsThe Real Value of Real Estate
One such real asset is, of course, real estate. Often considered attractive by investors for both its income producing and inflation hedging benefits, real estate as a broad asset class encompasses several different property types each with different risk and return characteristics.
The most accessible form of real estate investment is public real estate equities, although public and private debt investments (including mortgages) also provide investors with real estate investment exposure. Historically, the best real estate inflation hedge, however, has been available from private investments in those property types with the shortest lease terms such as hotels that can raise rates nightly. The potential inflation hedge benefit is lessened as you move to public real estate alternatives such as stocks issued by real estate investment trusts (REITs). Nevertheless, in an inflationary environment, REITs are likely to still outperform a broader equity universe as investors anticipate REIT operators’ ability to raise rents and pass through operating expenses when inflation accelerates.
An Inside TIPS on InflationReal assets also include inflation-protected financial securities, such as TIPS, that provide a total return tied directly to the actual inflation rate. Inflation-indexed bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury, TIPS’ principal value is regularly adjusted to reflect changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most commonly used measure of inflation. With TIPS, your portfolio benefits from owning U.S. government securities that offer protection from geopolitical turmoil or a financial system downturn like a traditional treasury security, while also preserving value if the inflation picture turns out worse than expected.
“The definition of real assets is that they have a high, positive correlation with inflation,” Skjervem says. “As a result, TIPS represent a good inflation hedge because their value is directly tied to changes in the CPI. That means when you add TIPS to your portfolio, you’re not buying them to maximize return, but rather to provide portfolio stability and inflation protection.”
The Value of Being PreparedWith the unemployment rate still rising, it seems unlikely that higher wages will generate serious inflation in the foreseeable future. And, as weak consumer demand continues to challenge corporate profits, the potential for higher prices for consumer goods is likely to remain muted until the recovery gathers steam and enters a full-fledged expansion. Nevertheless, real assets such as commodities, gold and real estate may continue to benefit investors as they seek quality investments in an economic downturn.
But if and when inflation returns, it’s important to be prepared, and real assets can provide an effective hedge against the adverse consequences of inflation. Taking steps now to protect your portfolio against inflation may prove to be a wise move down the road.
Dorstfontein Coal Mine
Dorstfontein Colliery
Dorstfontein is located east from Kriel in South Africa's Mpumalanga province and mines 1 Million run of mine tons from underground operations in the no. 2 seam. It produces high quality coal which is sought after by the international steam coal market and local ferrometal industry. Mmakau has export allocation through Richards Bay Coal Terminal and Total Coal markets the coal on behalf of Mmakau. Dorstfontein 2 seam produces 700 000 sales ton per annum for the export and domestic metallurgical market.
Dorstfontein is nearing the end of its production life Q4 2011 and will be replaced by the Dorstfontein West project in 2012.
Dorstfontein West
Dorstfontein West is currently in project phase and the plan is to mine the 4 seam with a combination of open cut and underground methods for the next 20 years. The project will make use of the existing process plant infrastructure and mine about 1 Million run of mine tons per annum. The plant will wash about 600 000 sales tons of a 5400kcal product for the export market and the plan is to transport the coal to the new Dorstfontein East mine which will have a rapid load out facility.
Dorstfontein EastThe Dorstfontein east project is currently in construction and commissioning phase and will be operational Q3 2011. Dorstfontein East is a Greenfield project that consists of a wash plant with a plant feed of up to 4 Million tons per annum, stockpile facilities and a 14 km overland conveyor to the rail loop with a rapid load out facility. The plan is to mine the 4 and 2 seam initially with open cut methods and later in the life of mine with underground sections. Access to underground blocks will be via adits established in the opencast high walls. The combined production rate will be about 3.2 Million run of mine tons per annum to meet sales of 2.0 Million tons per annum over 20 years for a 5400kcal export product. Mmakau Mining was awarded 350 000 tons export allocation in Richards Bay Coal Terminal's phase V expansion project and it will be allocated to the Dorstfontein East Mine.
Diversification Strategy - Less risk in stock trading
Are you looking to make and save enough cash for your retirement in the near future? Do you have money idly waiting in your desk drawer? Do you feel that bank rates are just too low to get a significant return on investment per year? Why not try something that is riskier, and at the same time, will give you higher returns? I am not talking about simple stock market trading. What I am talking about is using the diversification strategy in stock market trading. It is not as complicated as you may think.
Before I start discussing the diversified strategy for stock trading, here’s a saying that I would like you guys to keep in mind.
“Don’t put all your eggs in one basket”.
This strategy entails investing in different kinds of stocks that do not move together perfectly in the fluctuations of the stock market. Thus, you get a diversified portfolio. When I say, “stocks that do not move together”, I mean that the stocks that you should be investing in are stocks that both are rise in price in economic booms and in recessions. These stocks should be in different sizes and from many different industries.
You would probably tell me,
So that would mean that, even in normal markets or economic booms, you should also invest in stocks that are relatively low during these times. Why? Are you crazy?
These stocks serve as a buffer so that when recession strikes, just like what happened a couple of months ago, you won’t lose everything. By having a diversified portfolio, you decrease the variability of your stock and thus reduce risk.
Two types of risk
There are actually two types of risk when it comes to trading in the stock market. The first one is the market risk and the second one is diversifiable risk.
1. The Market Risk is the risk that is common to all of the firms. Such risks are recessions, when cost of goods rise, etc. This is the kind of risk that cannot be diversified away even if you have diversified portfolios.
2. The Diversifiable Risk is the risk that is unique to every firm. These risks include labor strikes, bankruptcy, the manager running away with the company’s money etc. This kind of risk can be diversified away when one has a diversified portfolio.
Some Benefits of having Diversified Portfolio
1. Less Risk! That is the best benefit I could think of. The more stocks in your portfolio, the more risk that is diversified away.
2. Assures you that even with the fluctuation in the stock market prices, your portfolio is more secure than if you are only investing in one particular stock. You are given more assurance that you are not wasting your money or are not throwing it all away.
Before I start discussing the diversified strategy for stock trading, here’s a saying that I would like you guys to keep in mind.
“Don’t put all your eggs in one basket”.
This strategy entails investing in different kinds of stocks that do not move together perfectly in the fluctuations of the stock market. Thus, you get a diversified portfolio. When I say, “stocks that do not move together”, I mean that the stocks that you should be investing in are stocks that both are rise in price in economic booms and in recessions. These stocks should be in different sizes and from many different industries.
You would probably tell me,
So that would mean that, even in normal markets or economic booms, you should also invest in stocks that are relatively low during these times. Why? Are you crazy?
These stocks serve as a buffer so that when recession strikes, just like what happened a couple of months ago, you won’t lose everything. By having a diversified portfolio, you decrease the variability of your stock and thus reduce risk.
Two types of risk
There are actually two types of risk when it comes to trading in the stock market. The first one is the market risk and the second one is diversifiable risk.
1. The Market Risk is the risk that is common to all of the firms. Such risks are recessions, when cost of goods rise, etc. This is the kind of risk that cannot be diversified away even if you have diversified portfolios.
2. The Diversifiable Risk is the risk that is unique to every firm. These risks include labor strikes, bankruptcy, the manager running away with the company’s money etc. This kind of risk can be diversified away when one has a diversified portfolio.
Some Benefits of having Diversified Portfolio
1. Less Risk! That is the best benefit I could think of. The more stocks in your portfolio, the more risk that is diversified away.
2. Assures you that even with the fluctuation in the stock market prices, your portfolio is more secure than if you are only investing in one particular stock. You are given more assurance that you are not wasting your money or are not throwing it all away.
Asian Investment Provide Diversification
Having looked at the possible developments in China, the latest news out of the rest of Asia is also not good. Factory output in Japan fell more than 8% in November, the biggest drop in 55 years. It is also expected that Toyota (TM) may report the first ever loss since WWII. According to a Bloomberg report:
Japan's economy will probably shrink at an annual 12.1 percent pace this quarter (ended Dec 08), the sharpest drop since 1974, as exports collapse…
“We expect negative growth will continue for a fifth straight quarter to the April-June period of 2009."
Companies surveyed said they planned to reduce output a further 8 percent this month and 2.1 percent in January. Exports slid an unprecedented 26.7 percent last month from a year earlier.
The data prompted other economists to revise their GDP projections. Bank of America Corp. now predicts an annualized 6.5 percent contraction from a 2.7 percent drop previously estimated.
The Yen at around 90 to a dollar is on a 13 year high and has accentuated Japan’s export woes.
As US and European consumers cut back on spending, it is hitting countries like Taiwan and Thailand apart from China & Japan. Excess capacities have been built and unless the situation in US stabilizes, the capacities in these countries are going to find it extremely difficult. If the US stimulus does not work for some reason then these countries are going to find it extremely difficult. As US moves from a leveraged and credit based society to a cash flow based, the absorption of the excess capacities may also take time.
Competitive devaluation may also start. Japan has already indicated that it plans to take steps to counter the rising Yen. It said:
Japan was ready to intervene in the foreign-exchange market for the first time in four years. With the nation’s economy already in recession along with the U.S. and Europe, the surging yen is adding to pressure on exporters…
Japan's economy will probably shrink at an annual 12.1 percent pace this quarter (ended Dec 08), the sharpest drop since 1974, as exports collapse…
“We expect negative growth will continue for a fifth straight quarter to the April-June period of 2009."
Companies surveyed said they planned to reduce output a further 8 percent this month and 2.1 percent in January. Exports slid an unprecedented 26.7 percent last month from a year earlier.
The data prompted other economists to revise their GDP projections. Bank of America Corp. now predicts an annualized 6.5 percent contraction from a 2.7 percent drop previously estimated.
The Yen at around 90 to a dollar is on a 13 year high and has accentuated Japan’s export woes.
As US and European consumers cut back on spending, it is hitting countries like Taiwan and Thailand apart from China & Japan. Excess capacities have been built and unless the situation in US stabilizes, the capacities in these countries are going to find it extremely difficult. If the US stimulus does not work for some reason then these countries are going to find it extremely difficult. As US moves from a leveraged and credit based society to a cash flow based, the absorption of the excess capacities may also take time.
Competitive devaluation may also start. Japan has already indicated that it plans to take steps to counter the rising Yen. It said:
Japan was ready to intervene in the foreign-exchange market for the first time in four years. With the nation’s economy already in recession along with the U.S. and Europe, the surging yen is adding to pressure on exporters…
Most Asian countries except Japan are expected to see a disinflation or a low inflation and not a deflation. According to a Morgan Stanley report:
...we highlight that Singapore and Indonesia lie at the two extreme ends of the inflation spectrum. The open nature of Singapore’s economy makes it most vulnerable to build-up of slack, and hence lower pricing power. Moreover, the correction in the real estate cycle is likely to show up in CPI as rental contracts reset with a lag. In the 1998 and 2001 recessions, when GDP growth was -1.4% and -2.4%, respectively, there were three to four quarters of deflation. We expect negative inflation toward 2H09.
...we highlight that Singapore and Indonesia lie at the two extreme ends of the inflation spectrum. The open nature of Singapore’s economy makes it most vulnerable to build-up of slack, and hence lower pricing power. Moreover, the correction in the real estate cycle is likely to show up in CPI as rental contracts reset with a lag. In the 1998 and 2001 recessions, when GDP growth was -1.4% and -2.4%, respectively, there were three to four quarters of deflation. We expect negative inflation toward 2H09.
Countries that have economies driven by deficits are the ones that will be most affected as global liquidity shrinks and flow of foreign capital reduces compared to the leveraged era gone by.
It appears that diversification strategies will not be easy to implement even in 2009.
Diversification and expansion of product line-up
Our future business development will be driven by the following four-pronged medium-term strategies:
1. Diversification and expansion of product line-up
2. Expansion of scope of services offered by the Group
3. Expansion of customer base
4. Overseas business development – beyond Japan to overseas markets
Of the above four strategies, priority will be given to the first and the second strategies, namely diversification and expansion of product line-up and expansion of scope of services, in order to secure focused application of management resources.
The third and fourth strategies will be mainly based on an inorganic approach through investment in, M&A of, or business tie-up with companies that have promising products or services in new areas.
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