Choosing a Real Asset

The entire category of real assets includes a range of potential investments, including real estate, gold and other commodities such as oil, minerals and agricultural products. Each of these, however, has its own return and volatility characteristics, and may or may not serve as an effective inflation hedge at any given time. Real estate, for example, is often subject to unique supply-and-demand or financing dynamics that are separate from other real assets and not always closely correlated with inflation.

“When choosing a real asset to invest in, it’s important to understand the real asset’s correlation with other investments in the portfolio, such as stocks or bonds, and the real asset’s direct correlation with inflation,” says Jim McDonald, chief investment strategist for Northern Trust. “For example, in 2008, commodities, as an asset class, went down every bit as much as stocks. So what’s important is making sure an investment is directly correlated with inflation, and not necessarily correlated with the performance of other portfolio investments.”

Whether real estate, gold, oil, minerals or Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), real assets can deliver robust diversification benefits due to their often-negative correlation with stocks and bonds.

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The Real Value of Real Estate

One such real asset is, of course, real estate. Often considered attractive by investors for both its income producing and inflation hedging benefits, real estate as a broad asset class encompasses several different property types each with different risk and return characteristics.

The most accessible form of real estate investment is public real estate equities, although public and private debt investments (including mortgages) also provide investors with real estate investment exposure. Historically, the best real estate inflation hedge, however, has been available from private investments in those property types with the shortest lease terms such as hotels that can raise rates nightly. The potential inflation hedge benefit is lessened as you move to public real estate alternatives such as stocks issued by real estate investment trusts (REITs). Nevertheless, in an inflationary environment, REITs are likely to still outperform a broader equity universe as investors anticipate REIT operators’ ability to raise rents and pass through operating expenses when inflation accelerates.

An Inside TIPS on Inflation

Real assets also include inflation-protected financial securities, such as TIPS, that provide a total return tied directly to the actual inflation rate. Inflation-indexed bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury, TIPS’ principal value is regularly adjusted to reflect changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most commonly used measure of inflation. With TIPS, your portfolio benefits from owning U.S. government securities that offer protection from geopolitical turmoil or a financial system downturn like a traditional treasury security, while also preserving value if the inflation picture turns out worse than expected.

“The definition of real assets is that they have a high, positive correlation with inflation,” Skjervem says. “As a result, TIPS represent a good inflation hedge because their value is directly tied to changes in the CPI. That means when you add TIPS to your portfolio, you’re not buying them to maximize return, but rather to provide portfolio stability and inflation protection.”

The Value of Being Prepared

With the unemployment rate still rising, it seems unlikely that higher wages will generate serious inflation in the foreseeable future. And, as weak consumer demand continues to challenge corporate profits, the potential for higher prices for consumer goods is likely to remain muted until the recovery gathers steam and enters a full-fledged expansion. Nevertheless, real assets such as commodities, gold and real estate may continue to benefit investors as they seek quality investments in an economic downturn.

But if and when inflation returns, it’s important to be prepared, and real assets can provide an effective hedge against the adverse consequences of inflation. Taking steps now to protect your portfolio against inflation may prove to be a wise move down the road.